Home » Regional Highlights » Prospetcs
In 2023, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) demonstrated robust economic performance with a Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth of 4.3%. This growth was primarily driven by household consumption and government expenditure. Projections for the upcoming years indicate a promising outlook, with GDP growth rates expected to reach 6.0% in 2024 and 7.5% in
2025. This optimistic forecast is fueled by strong household spending, stable government expenditure, and increased investments.
Private final consumption expenditure rose significantly by 7.5% in 2023, reaching PHP 333.40 billion, reflecting robust household spending and consumer confidence. The continued growth in household consumption is anticipated to be driven by the increasing disposable income levels, remittances, and government initiatives. Similarly, government final consumption expenditure increased by 3.4% in 2023, amounting to PHP 106.27 billion. Looking ahead, significant investments in infrastructure, public services, and effective public administration are expected to drive further economic growth, with projected increases of 4.7% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025.
Investment activities, as indicated by Gross Capital Formation, saw a slight decline of -1.0% in 2023, totaling PHP 53.74 billion. Despite this, the construction sector experienced modest growth of 10.4%.
Future projections highlight substantial growth in investments, particularly in the construction sector, which is crucial for enhancing the region’s productive capacity and supporting sustained economic growth. Efforts to boost exports and reduce import dependency are essential for achieving a more balanced trade position and economic resilience. In 2023, net exports showed improvement, with exports at PHP 24.48 billion and imports at PHP 30.84 billion, reflecting a better trade balance than the previous year.
The sectoral performance of BARMM in 2023 was marked by a 2.7% growth in agriculture, contributing 34.84% to GRDP. Continued growth in this sector is expected through improvements in agricultural practices and investments in infrastructure. The agriculture sector is projected to grow by 4.0% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025. The industry sector experienced a growth of 2.6%, with notable trends in construction and utilities, although the mining sector saw a significant decline, indicating a need for diversification and sustainable practices. The industry sector is forecasted to grow by 5.4% in 2024 and in 2025. The services sector, the largest in BARMM, grew by 6.7%, contributing 41.03% to GRDP. Key sub-sectors driving this growth include retail trade, transportation, financial services, and public administration. The services sector is expected to grow by 8.1% in 2024 and 11.3% in 2025.
The labor market in BARMM demonstrated resilience in 2023 with increasing labor force participation and employment rates. This positive trend is projected to continue through 2024 and 2025, driven by job creation initiatives, workforce development programs, and support for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). These measures are expected to strengthen labor market conditions, contributing to overall economic stability and growth.
Inflation rates in BARMM have fluctuated due to external economic factors and domestic challenges, but a gradual decline is projected by 2025. Effective inflation management will be crucial for maintaining economic stability and ensuring the purchasing power of consumers.
On the poverty front, the incidence in the region decreased to 23.5% in 2023, with mixed outcomes across the provinces. Projections for 2025 indicate a further reduction to 21.5%. This decline is driven by continued economic development programs and targeted interventions aimed at improving the economic well-being of families within the region.
Overall, BARMM’s economic outlook is optimistic, with strong growth anticipated across various sectors supported by robust household consumption, stable government expenditure, and increased investments.
Addressing the reliance on imports, enhancing local production, and improving the trade balance will be critical for ensuring sustainable long-term economic growth. With targeted policies, continued investment in infrastructure, and workforce development, BARMM is well-positioned for continued development and prosperity.